NYC Condo Market: Is It Still Worth Investing Today?

A recent analysis from The Real Deal took a close look at Manhattan’s condo market and found that many investors who purchased between 2016 and 2020 haven’t seen the returns they expected. According to the report, roughly one in three condo resales over the past year sold at a loss, with new development buyers hit the hardest.

But that doesn’t mean the market is in trouble—it just means the numbers need context.

What’s Been Happening

• Timing matters. Buyers who entered during the 2016–2020 boom faced record-high prices and limited leverage, which makes today’s softer resale returns unsurprising.

• The luxury segment remains resilient. Higher-end properties—especially in established neighborhoods—have seen far fewer losses and continue to attract global interest.

• External factors played a role. Changes in tax policy, migration patterns, and a shift of investment capital toward the stock market all contributed to the short-term dip in returns.

• All-cash buyers remain active. Many luxury transactions continue to close without financing, meaning this segment is less affected by rising or falling mortgage rates. You can read more about this trend in my recent post, Breaking Down NYC’s All-Cash Boom.

• Macro conditions are shifting. Mortgage rates are trending lower, the stock market is strong, and Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise again this year—all factors that support renewed buying activity.

The Outlook Ahead

Industry expert, Brown Harris Stevens’ Jared Antin, notes that several key indicators point toward a possible resurgence in the purchase market. With mortgage rates easing and economic conditions improving, more buyers are expected to re-enter the market as confidence returns.

The stock market’s strong performance over the past five years has kept many investors focused elsewhere, but as concerns about a possible correction grow, real estate is once again being viewed as a more stable, long-term investment.

While it’s true that condo appreciation has been uneven in recent years, New York City real estate has a long history of resilience. Every cycle brings its own corrections and its own opportunities.

If you’ve been considering buying in Manhattan, this could be an ideal time to explore what’s out there. Market shifts often create opportunities for well-informed buyers, and I’d be happy to help you navigate the landscape and find value in today’s evolving market.

Serj Markarian