Q4 2025 Manhattan Market Report: A Strong Finish Heading Into 2026

Q4 2025 Manhattan Market Report: A Strong Finish to the Year

As 2025 came to a close, Manhattan’s residential real estate market delivered a notably strong fourth quarter, particularly at the high end. Sales climbed to their highest level since 2022, signaling a clear turning point after a period of recalibration. With New York City’s economy outperforming the nation over the past two years — and expected to do so again in 2026 — the backdrop for renewed confidence was firmly in place.

That momentum was especially evident in the final quarter of the year. While elevated borrowing costs and lingering economic uncertainty continued to influence decision-making, Q4 reinforced a theme that had been building throughout 2025—well-capitalized buyers remained active, inventory stayed tight, and competition persisted for quality listings.

According to the newly released Q4 2025 Manhattan Market Report, sales activity held firm into year-end, pricing proved resilient, and demand remained concentrated in prime neighborhoods and larger apartments. The strength was especially visible in the luxury segment, where momentum accelerated rather than slowed.

Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, noted that “the super-luxury high-end market really overperformed… The bonuses on Wall Street were immense,” echoing this dynamic.

Her observation underscores a key driver of late-2025 activity—financial confidence. Strong equity markets and substantial bonus payouts helped fuel high-end transactions not only in Manhattan, but across other major luxury markets nationwide.

What Drove the Q4 Market

Several factors converged in the final months of the year:

• Luxury demand remained elevated, particularly among all-cash and low-leverage buyers

• Inventory stayed constrained, supporting pricing for well-positioned listings

• Resale apartments outperformed new development, where closings were more selective

• Buyer urgency increased as confidence improved and competition remained visible

Market analyst Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel, has consistently pointed out that Manhattan’s housing market often responds more to sentiment and supply than to short-term rate movements. In Q4, that dynamic was clearly on display. Buyers who had been patient earlier in the year re-entered the market once pricing felt rational and inventory remained limited.

What This Means Heading Into 2026

The takeaway from Q4 isn’t that prices suddenly surged. It’s that demand proved durable. As we head into 2026, the market appears less focused on correction and more influenced by competition, timing, and execution.

For buyers, Q4 reinforced that waiting for perfect conditions can mean facing a more crowded field later. For sellers, the message is equally clear—homes that are priced appropriately and launched strategically continue to attract serious interest, even in a higher-rate environment.

Q4 didn’t just close out the year — it clarified the market’s direction. Rather than signaling a broad reset, year-end activity reinforced how sensitive Manhattan real estate remains to confidence, supply, and execution. As 2026 approaches, those dynamics are likely to matter more than headline rate movements alone.

If you’re thinking about how these trends may affect your plans — whether buying, selling, or simply positioning for the year ahead — I’m always happy to talk through strategy and timing.

Serj Markarian