What Keeps NYC’s Real Estate Market Afloat

In a market that has consistently demonstrated resilience, New York City real estate is once again showing signs of stability. Since before the pandemic, we’ve weathered cycles of highs and lows—with buyers and sellers alike trying to navigate the waves without incurring losses. Early on, buyers capitalized on record-low interest rates, driven by pent-up demand as the city cautiously reopened. Then came surging inflation and the Fed’s sharpest rate hikes in a generation, causing deal volume to dip and ushering in a new era of long-term discipline.

“Today’s market is not driven by fear or frenzy,” says Jared Antin, managing director at Elegran. “It is driven by fundamentals. And those fundamentals are beginning to quietly favor Manhattan once again.”

Luxury buyers, in particular, remain undeterred by rising interest rates or high prices, as I’ve noted time and again. These buyers are not looking to flip—they’re purchasing generational homes with square footage that rivals a mansion. Their motivations are rooted in tax planning, legacy building, and maintaining a foothold in a city that continues to attract global capital, culture and media. They’re less rate-sensitive, more focused on quality, and are benefiting from a modest inventory uptick that provides enough selection to negotiate—without undermining overall values.

Sellers, too, are stepping forward with confidence, even amid ongoing economic uncertainty driven by tariff negotiations and stock market swings. One example—a four-story Manhattan penthouse recently hit the market at $110 million, reportedly drawing strong buyer interest. While that may seem extraordinary, it's increasingly becoming the norm. As Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel notes, there were a record nine sales over $100 million in 2021 and eight in 2024.

Still, not all buyers are moving with such abandon. Brokers in the broader luxury market are observing more caution, with buyers negotiating longer and harder. Even so, the luxury sector continues to buoy the market. Just last week, 33 contracts were signed on homes asking $4 million or more—impressive, considering it was the Easter/Passover holiday period, when activity typically slows.

Antin offers a compelling perspective on why real estate endures: “Unlike stocks or crypto, your home doesn’t ping you with a minute-by-minute ticker of perceived value. Real estate is tangible, usable, and not immediately correlated with the daily whims of public markets. It’s a built-in hedge against inflation and a ballast during turbulence.”

For anyone approaching the NYC real estate market with hesitation, this moment offers a measure of reassurance. New York has always learned to adapt—through 9/11, through the pandemic—and it continues to stabilize and move forward, no matter the challenge.